Changes in the Dynamics of the German pharmaceutical market due to the Corona pandemic : Supply bottlenecks, increased demand and the development of vaccines

Abstract

Background: The current Corona pandemic shaped the year 2020. In spring 2020 the dynamic development of infections led to national and international changes worldwide. So-called ‘lockdowns’ were the consequence in several countries containing the virus. This has had considerable implications for the international economy. International global supply chains have been disrupted. In the field of pharmaceuticals there was concern about new supply bottlenecks. To enable the continued nationwide supply of pharmaceuticals in Germany, new regulations that facilitated dispensation of pharmaceuticals were introduced. Methods: A secondary data analysis of the supply bottlenecks that have occurred from January to June 2020 of the database of the BfArM was performed in order to identify and characterize the shortages by using descriptive statistics. This was followed by an exploratory trend analysis to analyse the changes of the prescriptions of most affected pharmaceutical groups by supply bottlenecks from July 2019 to June 2020. To supplement the quantitative data, expert interviews were conducted, mainly to find out whether a supply bottleneck led to a supply shortage during the first peak or not. To examine the development of vaccines against COVID-19 referring literature was reviewed. Results: Analysis part 1 and 2: In March and April 2020 an increased number of supply bottlenecks were reported. A relatively homogeneous picture from February to May 2020 can be seen in the analysis of medical prescriptions. In March compared to February more pharmaceuticals were prescribed. Prescriptions then recorded a large decrease until May 2020. Two main causes of the supply bottlenecks could be identified: ‘The interrupted or restricted production of API and their interrupted supply chain’ and ‘increased demand’. According to the experts an ‘overall’ supply shortage of pharmaceuticals did not occur in the population. Analysis part 3: Worldwide 260 COVID-19 vaccines are in development. Four vaccines are already authorised in Germany. Discussion: The results show that supply bottlenecks, which had been a problem for some time, were exacerbated by the Corona pandemic. Results also show that there is a necessity for action in order to cope better with future pandemics in the area of safe and nationwide supply of pharmaceuticals. With the ‘Pharmaceutical Strategy for Europe’, the EU has already initiated a goal to concretely counteract supply bottlenecks. The relocation of production of supply relevant active pharmaceutical ingredients and finished pharmaceuticals should be considered to be able to act more flexibly in future pandemics.