Understanding climate change as a driver of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in northern Germany

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change affects not only the planet but also its inhabitants. When it comes to human health, it poses various threats, one of which is the rise of infectious diseases. Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases are a great burden to human lives and it has been observed that with accelerating climate change frequent outbreaks and epidemics occur. Even in Germany emergence of non-endemic infectious diseases is seen. The aim of this work is to understand to what extent climate change drives emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in Germany, especially northern Germany. To examine this, a systematic literature review was conducted. Simultaneously, climate data was collected from local and national institutions to understand this trend and examine the habitat suitability of the observed region under future climate scenarios. The obtained results show that the change in seasonal duration, microclimate and abiotic factors such as temperature, precipitation, ocean salinity etc. are identified as primary drivers of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in northern Germany. These drivers influence the vector-pathogen-dynamics directly, especially the vector-pathogen-density and geographic distribution i.e., the ability to shift geographical ranges in a brief period. The collected climate data not only underlines this but also projects that the habitat suitability of northern Germany is changing favourably for these pathogens and vectors. Based on the results from the literature review and collected climate data, if current climatic conditions are to prevail, pathogens and vectors causing diseases such as West Nile Disease, Lyme Disease, Dengue, Non-Cholera Vibriosis etc. will have established ecological niches in northern Germany in the future. To address this issue an interdisciplinary approach must be taken. In this work the One Health Concept is presented as it allows different sectors to work in cooperation and thereby ensure human and animal health.