Assessing uncertainties in climate change adaptation and land management

Abstract

The entire cascade of scenario generation, global and regional climate modeling, as well as concrete measures towards climate adaptation are subject to uncertainties. An exact prediction of how the climate will change in the coming years, and how it will affect land use, is not possible. There is thus a perceived need to identify ways via which uncertainties can be addressed. Based on the need to address the research gap in this area, this paper reports the findings of a study on uncertainty in a climate change adaptation context, and how it is perceived. It consists of a multi-stakeholder survey among climate change professionals, including academic staff at universities, representatives from international agencies, members of NGOs, policymakers, and representatives of industry from 50 countries, including a balanced representation of industrialized and developing nations. The results obtained suggest that uncertainties are often a hindrance to engagement in climate change adaptation efforts, and to land management. Furthermore, there is a range of tools to reduce climate change adaptation uncertainties, whose deployment may help to address them. The paper concludes by providing a list of lessons learned and suggestions as to how uncertainty can be better communicated, and by doing so, how a reduction in the levels of climate change vulnerability may be achieved, and how land management may be fostered.