Analysis of the Impact of Household Heat Pumps and Photovoltaics on the Electricity Distribution Grid in Hamburg

Abstract

In this work, a model is developed to analyze the impact of household heat pumps and photovoltaics on the electricity distribution grid in Hamburg. Referring to existing studies and tools, this thesis first estimates the future heat and electricity demand, as well as the electricity generated by PV, for residential buildings in Hamburg. Based on a set of criteria, a specific energy system is then assigned to each building. Using this information as input, the total electricity demand is subsequently calculated using a linear optimization model. In this study, a total of 229,119 building objects are assessed. To evaluate the impact different combinations of technologies can have on the electricity distribution grid, the results are aggregated based on their approximate location in relation to the grid areas. Finally, two indicators, namely: full load hours and the ratio between the peak demands in positive (energy taken from the grid) and negative (energy fed into the grid) directions, are derived from the aggregated results to provide a simplified assessment of the grid situation.