Health service resource needs for pandemic influenza in developing countries : a linked transmission dynamics, interventions and resource demand model

Abstract

We used a mathematical model to describe a regional outbreak and extrapolate the underlyinghealth-service resource needs. This model was designed to (i) estimate resource gaps andquantities of resources needed, (ii) show the effect of resource gaps, and (iii) highlight whichparticular resources should be improved. We ran the model, parameterized with data from the2009 H1N1v pandemic, for two provinces in Thailand. The predicted number of preventabledeaths due to resource shortcomings and the actual resource needs are presented for twoprovinces and for Thailand as a whole. The model highlights the potentially huge impact ofhealth-system resource availability and of resource gaps on health outcomes during a pandemicand provides a means to indicate where efforts should be concentrated to effectively improvepandemic response programmes.