Effects of TTIP for the German automotive sector: an outlook based on the effects of the Korea-EU FTA (KOREU)

Abstract

This paper addresses the potential outcomes of the proposed TTIP free trade agreement between the EU and US from the perspective of the German automotive industry. The outlook is based on the experiences made with the Korea-EU FTA implemented in 2011. The Korea-EU FTA is the first of its kind to include an automotive sector-specific annex that is aimed at abolishing non-tariff barriers to trade. After a thorough analysis of the German automobile industry’s export structure and performance in key export destinations, the paper shows how German diesel automobiles with premium quality have driven their market share in South Korea. An analysis of the non-tariff barriers in existence prior and after the FTA shows that only about one-third of them have successfully been abolished. This is reflected in the marginal price decrease of German vehicles compared between 2009 and 2014. However, also an increase in volume and value of German automobiles traded to South Korea is identified. The reason for this is found to be rooted in the elimination of immeasurable socio-economic non-tariff barriers rather than by those of administrative or procedural nature. This paper discusses the non-tariff barriers that are in place on the US automotive market and suggests improvements for TTIP that should be incorporated based on the experiences with the Korea-EU FTA. The final outlook presents a positive impact of TTIP for the German automotive industry.