What is the extent of the transmission probability of the HIV infection into the general population? A comparison between Poland, a new EU member country, and Germany by applying the national point prevalence estimate and projection method

Abstract

The aim of this investigation was to examine and to compare the levels of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Germany and Poland at the end of the year 2003 and to design an idea of probable epidemic tendencies until the year 2030. The probability of spreading the HIV infection by high risk populations (PHR) as so called hard-to-reachpopulations with their risky sexual behaviour towards people belonging to the population of lower risk (PLR) was the focus of attention. Another matter of concern was to contribute to point out probable requirements of improvement in HIV surveillance and recommendations concerning prevention measures in hard-to-reach-populations with regard to second generation HIV surveillance.